India Monsoon Forecast 2025: In a surprising twist to India’s weather story, the southwest monsoon has arrived 8 days early in Kerala, setting the stage for a rain-rich season across the country. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the nation is likely to receive 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall between June and September this year. This means more rains than usual, and for some regions, it could be both a blessing and a challenge.
Let’s break down what this forecast means, why it’s happening, and what new tech tools India is using to track the changing monsoon like never before.
Surprising Monsoon Forecast: 106% Rainfall Expected, These States Will See More Rains in 2025!
What Is the Monsoon Forecast for 2025?
India’s official weather agency IMD has revised its earlier forecast of 105% rainfall to 106% of LPA for the upcoming monsoon season. For context, the LPA is 87 cm (or 870 mm) of rainfall, calculated based on average rainfall data from 1971 to 2020.
June Will Be Wetter Too
Not just the whole season — June itself is expected to see 108% rainfall, well above average. This is significant because June rainfall sets the tone for Kharif crop sowing and water reservoir levels across India.
“There is a strong likelihood of above-normal rainfall in central India including Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Maharashtra,” said Mrityunjay Mohapatra, Director General of IMD.
Where Will It Rain More (And Less)?
This year’s India Monsoon Forecast 2025 paints a varied picture across regions:
States Expected to Receive More Than Normal Rainfall:
- Madhya Pradesh
- Chhattisgarh
- Maharashtra
- Odisha
- Parts of Central and Southern India
These states fall under what IMD calls the “core monsoon zone”, which is highly dependent on monsoon rains for agriculture and water needs.
Areas Likely to See Less Than Normal Rainfall:
- Punjab
- Haryana
- Kerala
- Tamil Nadu
- Parts of Northeast India
Meanwhile, Northwest India may witness normal rainfall.
What Is Causing This Monsoon Shift?
The early and above-normal monsoon can be traced to several climate and oceanic factors:
- High Sea Surface Temperatures in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are creating more moisture in the atmosphere.
- Western disturbances and cyclonic movements have accelerated monsoon currents.
- Climate change continues to shift long-standing weather patterns.
In fact, Kerala saw the monsoon arrive on May 24, marking the earliest arrival in 16 years. The last such early arrival was on May 23, 2009.
Here is the English translation of the image content:
Rainfall and Average of Last 5 Monsoon Seasons
| Year | Rainfall | Average |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 934 MM | 108% |
| 2023 | 820 MM | 94.4% |
| 2022 | 925 MM | 106% |
| 2021 | 870 MM | 98.86% |
| 2020 | 958 MM | 109% |
Bharat Forecast System: A Game-Changer in Weather Tech
In a major upgrade to India’s weather forecasting capability, the Bharat Forecast System (BFS) was launched by the Ministry of Science & Technology this week.
Key Features of the Bharat Forecast System:
- 6 km resolution forecasts — the best in the world
- Covers disaster management, agriculture, water management, and public safety
- Developed by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune
- Uses supercomputer Arka, which generates detailed forecasts in just 4 hours (previously 10 hours using Pratyush)
- Incorporates data from 40+ Doppler radars, expanding to 100 in future
- Enables hyperlocal, 2-hour forecasts even at the village level
“This is a quantum leap in India’s forecasting capabilities,” said Dr. Jitendra Singh, Union Minister of State for Science and Technology.
What Does It Mean for Farmers and Daily Life?
This year’s India Monsoon Forecast 2025 is crucial for multiple sectors:
For Farmers:
- Better sowing cycles for Kharif crops
- Reduced risk of crop failure due to early rain
- However, excess rainfall could also lead to flooding or crop damage
For Cities:
- Improved water storage and less water stress
- Increased flood risk in low-lying urban areas
For Disaster Management:
- Faster alerts and real-time hyperlocal forecasts
- Stronger early warning systems at panchayat level
Why This Forecast Matters
With climate patterns growing unpredictable, early and accurate forecasts are more critical than ever. India Monsoon Forecast 2025 offers a rare silver lining with above-average rain, but also reminds us of the need for preparedness.
This year’s monsoon could boost agricultural output, recharge groundwater, and support rural incomes — if managed smartly. But it also challenges infrastructure and flood resilience systems, especially in urban zones.
Recap of Key Points:
- Monsoon arrived in Kerala on May 24 — 8 days early
- 106% of normal rainfall expected this year
- June may see 108% rainfall
- MP, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh among states to get more rain
- BFS launched with 6-km precision and faster forecasts
Monsoon Reached Kerala Earliest in 16 Years
The official date for monsoon to reach Kerala is June 1
| Year | Days Early/Late | Actual Date |
|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 9 days early | May 23 |
| 2010 | 1 day early | May 31 |
| 2011 | 3 days early | May 29 |
| 2012 | 4 days early | May 28 |
| 2013 | On time | June 1 |
| 2014 | 5 days late | June 6 |
| 2015 | 4 days late | June 5 |
| 2016 | 7 days late | June 8 |
| 2017 | 2 days early | May 30 |
| 2018 | 3 days early | May 29 |
| 2019 | 7 days late | June 8 |
| 2020 | On time | June 1 |
| 2021 | 2 days late | June 3 |
| 2022 | 3 days early | May 29 |
| 2023 | 7 days late | June 8 |
| 2024 | 2 days early | May 30 |
| 2025 | 8 days early | May 24 |
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