Delhi Elections Poll of Polls: After the voting for 70 seats of Delhi Assembly ended this evening, 11 exit polls were released. BJP is expected to get majority in 9 seats and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is expected to form government in 2 seats. In the Poll of Polls, BJP is seen getting 39 seats, AAP 30 and Congress 1 seat. JVC and Poll Diary have predicted that others will also get 1 seat each in their exit polls.
Delhi Elections Poll of Polls 2025
| Party | Seats Won |
|---|---|
| BJP+ (Bharatiya Janata Party and Allies) | 39 |
| AAP (Aam Aadmi Party) | 30 |
| Congress | 1 |
Total Seats: 70
Majority Needed: 36
Sources: Matrize, People Insight, People Pulse, JV Polls, P-Mark Chankya Strategies, Poll Diary, TVC Research, VP Research, Mind Blink, SAS.
If BJP gets majority then it will return to power after 27 years. Earlier in 1993, BJP won 49 seats and made 3 CMs in 5 years. Madan Lal Khurana, Sahib Singh Verma and Sushma Swaraj.
The sons and daughters of all three leaders are active in Delhi politics. Khurana’s son Harish Khurana is contesting from Moti Nagar, Sahib Singh Verma’s son Pravesh Verma is contesting from New Delhi. Bansuri Swaraj is an MP from New Delhi.
57.70% voting has been done for the 70 seats of Delhi Assembly till 5 pm on Wednesday. The final figures are not yet out. The results will be declared on February 8. 36 seats are needed to form the government.
Delhi Elections: Exit polls of 11 agencies
| Agency | BJP+ (Seats) | AAP (Seats) | Congress (Seats) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matrize | 35-40 | 32-37 | 0-1 |
| People Insight | 40-44 | 25-29 | 0-1 |
| People Pulse | 51-60 | 10-19 | 0-1 |
| JV Polls | 39-45 | 22-31 | 0-2 |
| P Mark | 39-49 | 21-31 | 0-1 |
| Chanakya Strategies | 39-44 | 25-28 | 2-3 |
| Poll Diary | 42-50 | 18-25 | 0-2 |
| TVC Research | 36-44 | 26-34 | 0 |
| VP Research | 18-23 | 46-52 | 0-1 |
| Mind Blink | 21-25 | 44-49 | 0-1 |
| SAS | 38-41 | 27-30 | 1-3 |
Delhi Elections Poll of Polls (Combined Results):
- BJP+: 39
- AAP: 30
- Congress: 1
Total Seats: 70
Majority Needed: 36
Statements on Exit Poll
BJP MP Manoj Tiwari- I have just seen the exit polls, I think our results are going to be better than the exit polls. The reaction we have seen among the people shows that BJP is coming to power. This is BJP’s homecoming.
AAP leader Sushil Gupta- This is our fourth election and every time the exit polls did not show AAP forming the government. Arvind Kejriwal has worked for the people of Delhi. The results will come in favour of AAP on February 8.
Congress MP Gurjit Singh Aujla- Those who used to say that Congress is not present on the ground will see Congress winning a good number of seats. AAP will not come back. No party will get a clear majority. All three parties will get equal number of seats.
How accurate were the exit polls in the last three assembly elections?
Delhi Legislative Assembly Elections 2020
Seats: 70 | Majority: 36
In 2020, only 1 out of 12 exit polls was accurate
| Survey Agency | AAP Seats | BJP+ Seats | Congress Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| Times Now | 47 | 23 | 0 |
| ABP News – C Voter | 56 | 12 | 2 |
| India News Nation | 55 | 14 | 1 |
| India Today – Axis My India | 63 | 7 | 0 |
| India TV | 44 | 26 | 0 |
| TV9 Bharatvarsh – Cicero | 54 | 15 | 1 |
| Jan Ki Baat | 55 | 15 | 0 |
| Sudarshan News | 42 | 26 | 2 |
| NewsX – Neta | 55 | 14 | 1 |
| Spik Media | 43-55 | 12-21 | 0-3 |
| NewsX – Polstrat | 56 | 14 | 0 |
Poll of Polls
| AAP: 52 | BJP+: 17 | Congress: 1 |
Result 2020
| AAP: 62 | BJP+: 8 | Congress: 0 |
Delhi Legislative Assembly Elections 2015
Seats: 70 | Majority: 36
All Exit Polls Were Wrong in 2015
| Exit Poll Agency | AAP (%) | BJP+ (%) | Congress (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| C-Voter | 31-39 | 27-35 | 2-4 |
| ABP-Nielsen | 39 | 28 | 3 |
| News Nation | 41 | 27 | 2 |
| India News | 53 | 17 | 0 |
| News 24-Today’s Chanakya | 48 | 22 | 0 |
| India Today-Cicero | 39 | 29 | 2 |
| Poll of Polls | 43 | 26 | 1 |
Result 2015
| Party | Seats Won |
|---|---|
| AAP | 67 |
| BJP | 03 |
| Congress | 00 |
This table shows that all the exit polls underestimated AAP’s landslide victory and overestimated BJP’s performance.
Delhi Legislative Assembly Elections 2013
Seats: 70 | Majority: 36
In 2013, Only One Exit Poll Was Close to the Results
| Exit Poll Agency | AAP (%) | BJP+ (%) | Congress (%) | Others (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Times Now-C Voter | 12 | 31 | 24 | 2 |
| ABP-Nielsen | 15 | 37 | 16 | 2 |
| NDTV | 17 | 34 | 17 | 2 |
| CNN-IBN | 13-21 | 32-42 | 9-17 | 0 |
| Today’s Chanakya | 31 | 29 | 10 | 0 |
| India Today-ORG | 6 | 41 | 20 | 3 |
| Poll of Polls | 16 | 35 | 17 | 2 |
Result 2013
| Party | Seats Won |
|---|---|
| AAP | 28 |
| BJP | 31 |
| Congress | 08 |
| Others | 08 |
This table shows that most exit polls underestimated AAP’s performance, while only Today’s Chanakya came close to the actual results.
Understanding Exit Polls: How They Predict Election Outcomes
An exit poll is a survey conducted during an election to gauge the public’s voting preferences. Unlike opinion polls, which are carried out before voting, exit polls are conducted immediately after voters cast their ballots. Volunteers from exit poll agencies stand outside polling booths and ask voters questions about their choices as they leave the voting site.
These responses are then analyzed to predict the election outcomes. Typically, exit poll results are made public about one hour after the final phase of voting concludes. The predictions are based on the trends observed in the answers provided by the voters during this process.
Delhi | Lok Sabha Elections 2024
Total Seats: 7
BJP Won All Lok Sabha Seats
| Party | Seats Won |
|---|---|
| BJP | 07 |
| AAP | 00 |
| Congress | 00 |
This means BJP secured a clean sweep in Delhi in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
The equations of Lok Sabha elections changed in the assembly elections
In the Lok Sabha elections, AAP and Congress fought together in the INDIA Block on 7 seats in Delhi. Under this, AAP fought on 4 and Congress on 3 Lok Sabha seats, but BJP won all the seven seats.
BJP got a total of 54.7% votes on all these seats while INDIA Block got 43.3% votes. The average margin of victory and defeat on all seats was 1.35 lakh. If we look at the Lok Sabha results assembly wise, BJP seems to be getting a clear majority. BJP is winning 52 assembly seats.
Delhi Legislative Assembly Elections 2025
Based on Lok Sabha results, BJP gets majority in the Assembly
Seats: 70 | Majority: 36
| Party | Seats Won |
|---|---|
| BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) | 52 |
| AAP (Aam Aadmi Party) | 10 |
| INC (Indian National Congress) | 8 |
Although in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP won all seven seats and took the lead in 65 assembly seats, but in the 2020 assembly elections, AAP managed to win 62 seats. At the same time, BJP got only 8 seats.
Similarly, in the massive Modi wave of 2014, BJP won all the seven Lok Sabha seats and was ahead in 60 assembly seats. But in the 2015 assembly elections, AAP won 67 seats and BJP was reduced to 3 seats.
Around 18% swing voters prove to be kingmakers in the assembly elections. Delhi elections are held about 9 months after the Lok Sabha elections. A big change in voting trend is seen in such a short time. If we analyse the last three assembly and Lok Sabha elections, swing voters have been deciding the power in Delhi.
Delhi Elections 2025: 58.06% voting: Highest in North-East Delhi at 64.33%, lowest in South-East at 54.58%
Voting for 70 seats of Delhi Assembly is over. 58.06% people have cast their votes this time. The highest voting percentage was 64.33% in North-East Delhi and the lowest was 54.58% in South-East. This is the parliamentary constituency of BJP MP Manoj Tiwari. This is the lowest voting percentage in the last 12 years.
Delhi CM Face: Uncertainty in BJP and Congress
- Apart from the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), no other party has declared its CM candidate in Delhi.
- If AAP retains power, Arvind Kejriwal is certain to continue as Chief Minister.
- BJP and Congress have multiple names in discussion but no official announcement.
- Congress, however, seems unlikely to form the government.
Possible BJP CM Candidates
- Pravesh Verma (Jat Community)
- Jats dominate 225 out of 364 villages in Delhi.
- Influence 50 seats, decide the outcome on 20 seats.
- Can help BJP consolidate Jat votes in Haryana and Western UP.
- Ramesh Bidhuri (Gujjar Community)
- Gujjars are the second-largest community in Delhi.
- Influence 9 Assembly seats.
- Dushyant Gautam (SC Community)
- No Dalit CM in the country currently.
- BJP may choose him to strengthen SC support.
- Amit Shah reminded that Arvind Kejriwal had promised a Dalit CM for Delhi but never fulfilled it.
- If BJP wins, Delhi may see its first SC Chief Minister.
Also read:
PM Modi’s Pilgrimage Visits on Election Days: A Political Strategy or Coincidence?
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